US–China Relations through the Prism of the Thucydides Trap

Abstract

In the twenty-first century, the incredible rise of China is altering the landscape of the world, both politically as well as economically. The economic miracle of China has transformed it from an agricultural society to a highly advanced industrial one. If the 20th century belonged to the USA, many policymakers across the world predict that the 21st century will be a 'Chinese Century'. The rapid growth of China's economy, in turn, has catapulted China to a position where it has become one of the most powerful and influential powers of the world. However, with increasing power and resources, China has now become more aggressive and assertive in its approach, which has alienated its neighbours and aroused suspicion about its “peaceful rise” throughout the world. In this connection, this paper attempts to examine and analyse the nature of China’s rise, whether it would be peaceful or threat to the regional peace and stability. It also tries to explain whether the USA and China would be able to avoid the ‘Thucydides Trap’. This paper concludes that China’s rise is likely to intensify strategic competition with the USA and increase concerns regarding regional security and the existing international order. While China’s increasing strength may encourage greater regional assertiveness and competition with the USA, such rivalry does not necessarily make the ‘Thucydides Trap’ inevitable. The future trajectory of US-China relations will depend significantly on how both powers manage strategic competition, crises, and changes in the distribution of global power.